UK and EU reach post-Brexit deal; UK sees lasting impact of COVID-19
Date: 2021-01-04
The United Kingdom has recently attracted global attention. On the one hand, the United Kingdom and the European Union finally secured a post-Brexit trade deal on Dec 24. On the other hand, more countries have announced plans to ban flights from Britain following several European nations' similar decisions, as a new and more transmissible strain of COVID-19 has been reported in Britain.
On Dec 24 local time, with only one week left before the end of the Brexit transition period, the UK and EU finally agreed a more than 500 page post-Brexit trade deal to lay the foundation for a brand new relationship between them. The two sides now have to get the deal formally approved by their respective parliaments in London and Brussels.
The UK left the EU single market and the customs union as of Jan 1, 2021 to achieve full political and economic independence. It may, however, take several years more for the two sides to manage their future relationship.
It is reported that the deal covers broad aspects such as energy, fisheries, aviation and civil nuclear energy cooperation. According to the deal, both sides will conduct tariff-free and quota-free trade in goods after Dec 31, 2020, but arrangements for the service industry, which accounts for 80 percent of the British economy, are not included.
To cover that pending approval period and to avoid the possible nightmare of a chaotic economic break the European Parliament temporarily will accept the agreement on Jan 1.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson expressed the hope that British MPs will vote on the agreement on Dec 30, as it will be time-consuming for the deal to become a bill.
Analysts believe that although the post-Brexit trade deal can avoid a complete divorce in the trade relationship between the two sides, the UK will still face the largest resettlement of foreign trade relations of developed economies since World War II.
Even if the trade agreement is reached, the UK may still regret its decision to leave the EU -- the new customs form filling and monitoring system ends the seamless trade arrangement that has been implemented since the 1970s, which may cause port interruptions and even the risk of food shortages in supermarkets. The bottleneck may immediately translate into slowing economic growth and rising prices.
Bloomberg Economic Research predicts that UK’s real gross domestic product (GDP) will be reduced by 1.5 percent yearly in 2021 as a result of the failure to reach the trade deal. However, vice versa, the annual GDP growth rate of the UK will still be 0.5 percentage points lower than that it would have when it stayed in the EU in the next 10 years.
Success of the post-Brexit trade deal was complicated by the UK’s fight against the COVID-19 pandemic.
New and potentially more transmissible coronavirus variants were reported in the UK on Dec 14 and 23 respectively. More areas of East and Southeast Britain have been subject to the highest level of movement restrictions – the Tier Four.
London announced a lockdown before Christmas to prevent the spread of the virus.
On the evening of Dec 20, France announced that it has implemented a 48-hour ban on travel to Britain, which cut the main freight channel between Britain and Europe. Since the border was closed, a number of trucks have been trapped in Kent, Britain, unable to leave the Port of Dover or travel to France through the Channel Tunnel. Moreover, as of Dec 22, about 40 countries and regions had suspended flights to and from the UK to varying degrees.
Fortunately, on Dec 23 France reopened its border with the UK. EU citizens within France, permanent residents of France and military personnel transporting goods across the border were allowed to return on the understanding that they are required for negative nucleic acid test results no more than 72 hours before departure.
Media reported that some people were hoarding supermarket goods in fear of shortages, which even developed into a panic-stricken shopping frenzy after the implementation of the highest level of movement restrictions in London and Southeast Britain.
Although the UK has started inoculating people with COVID-19 vaccines, some analysts believe that it may still be hard for the UK to control the epidemic.
The National Audit Office of the UK reported on Dec 15 that the United Kingdom can only vaccinate half of the British population in 2021, and 75 percent of its entirety by 2022. In other words, it will still take more than a year to stop the spread of the virus by vaccines.
At present, the recovery of the British economy depends on the development of the epidemic. Agency data show that the British saved a total of 197 billion pounds ($267.3 billion) in 2020, twice as much as last year, and each family saved an average of 7,100 pounds during the lockdown period.
During the weekend after the second unblocking, 11 million Britons spent a total of 4.5 billion pounds, an average of 227 pounds per shopper.
The UK’s GDP grew by a record 15.5 percent during the third quarter of 2020, which was the nation's fastest quarterly increase since records began in 1955.
However, the third-quarter recovery was unable to last for long due to another four-week lockdown in the UK in November.
For Britain, the economy recovery is undoubtedly a protracted battle. British Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak said on Nov 25 that the UK's "economic emergency" had "only just begun".